The Bizarre Himalayan Mystery

I am aghast!! – I was under the impression that the construction cost of the mysterious Punatsangchhu Hydropower Project-I (PHP-I) - would have by now spiraled to around Nu.100.00 billion or so – from its initial estimate of Nu.35 billion when the project construction began some 18 years back - in 2008. It appears that I am way off in my estimations - the latest news report by TheBhutanese informs us that the cost has actually escalated to a staggering Nu.170.00 billion!! And all that the PHP-I authorities has to show for it is a cute little Buddhist stupa constructed to appease the wrathful Gods who kept conjuring up slides after slides, a dozen or so metal billets grouted into the mountain side that is destined to come crumbling down anytime soon, and a disgraceful indecision as to whether to do a dam or a joke of a barrage - for a project that is still touted as a run-of-the-river project.

Sometime in 2024, quiet obviously, in shameful frustration, Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired senior engineering geologist from the Geological Survey of India, Government of India, came on record and publicly declared as follows, in relation to PHP-I:

“This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

Including this post, I have already written 85 articles on the subject of the perils associated with our hydropower projects – mainly surrounding PHP-I. So, let me keep this one short and sweet, and to the point:

AAA. Given that the young, fragile Himalayan geology of the project site has been totally destabilized by the incessant blasting of the rock formations during the initial stages of the project’s construction, no one is in any doubt that even a minor seismic activity will bring down some sections of the dam site crumbling down into the ravine – burying everything below, including shutting off the flow of the mighty Punatsangchhu that currently turns the turbines of the PHP-II downstream. The dam site has already seen three major, repeated slides on its right bank.

BBB. Seismologists have repeatedly warned that the Great Himalayan region, where Bhutan is located bang in the middle, is due for a massive earthquake – of magnitude 8 and upwards. Look what happened in neighboring Nepal during April of 2015. It is not a question of if, but of when, the mother of all tremors will strike. Recent events related to a nature that is in furious turmoil, should tell us that the “when” is not too distant in the future.

CCC. Thorthormi Tso is all primed to come unbridled. Our authorities are all frantic preparing for this eventuality which we know is as sure as day and night. When that happens, all that we can do is gape in consternation, while both the PHP-I & II are swept away to their final resting place – in the Bay of Bengal, via the Brahmaputra.

DDD. It is now amply clear – absolutely no doubt whatsoever – that the PHP-I will never, ever get done – absolutely, conclusively NOT! So, what is the meaning of being so adamant about going on and on and on?

EEE. Alright, even if, by some miracle the project gets done, we can foretell that the cost will likely touch upwards Nu.400 billion. At that cost of production, try and imagine: what will be the unit cost of electricity produced by this project? Do we hope to be able to sell the electricity from this project at that exorbitant cost? Which idiots will buy? You may recall that even as far back as 2015 – that is eleven years back! -  we were already having a hard time selling our electricity from Dagachu Hydropower Project – at Nu.2.90 per unit.

I have dealt with the Indians from the time I was 8 years old (even my late father worked as an interpreter to DANTAK’s first Chief Engineer) – I have interacted with them in India, as well as in many other countries across the globe - in both the hemispheres. As a race, I know them to be among the most brilliant. Therefore, I refuse to believe that they do not see the futility of their doggedness with this PHP-I enterprise ….

To be fair, for the Bhutanese partners in the project … WE ARE BETTER OFF IF THE PROJECT DOES NOT COME ON LINE - for the simple reason that if the project does not start to generate and start earning – we are not liable to pay back the loan component of the project, at 10% p.a. interest.

That being beside the point, can you guess what exactly is the mystery surrounding this Project? Two Chettrums for your thoughts!

As the Indians would say:

Daal mey kooch kala toh jaroor hai! 😅