After being in the works for nearly 16 years and having gone through close to 3 dozen Technical Committee Meetings to determine the tenability of the project, and with a humungous cost overrun projected, some believe, to exceed 400% of its initial estimate, the 1,200MW PHP-I Project Authority was forced to admit - after repeated landslides that occurred at the location of its dam site - that the proposed location of the dam was unsuitable - given its unstable geological formation. Instead, they announced that they were opting for a barrage in place of the dam - to be located further upstream of the project site.
The larger of the two PHP Projects was slated to be completed by November, 2016.
A barrage to turn the massive turbines designed to generate 1,200 MW of electricity? LUDICROUS!! I silently sniggered at the decision - because I knew that it was nothing more than a face-saving move - the project authorities would damn well know that a barrage was not an option for a project of the size of PHP-I. I was sure that in time, they would admit to their mistakes, and finally announce the closure of the project - for good.
Sadly, no such thing is apparently contemplated! On the other hand, after dithering for over one and half decades, we are now told that they are, yet again, adamant on building a dam at the same original site. That the foolhardy idea of a barrage has been shelved!
Barrage be damned! It is once again back to riveting and damming.
For an economy the size of India’s, the PHP-I's projected cost of Rs.200.00 billion is small change. But that is cold comfort for Bhutan. I mean it is not the financial loss that should bother us - after all the project’s ToR is clear - the project has been taken up on the assurance that it shall be self-liquidating - meaning that unless the project comes on line and begins to generate income, it is no loss of any marbles to Bhutan. Even when, rather if, the project comes on line, it has the responsibility to liquidate all its costs – only loss Bhutan will likely suffer is the loss of gain, for all our pains!
Frankly, Bhutan’s worry should go beyond financial gain, or loss. Our worry should be the increasing unpredictability of the weather – caused by global warming. Already this year we have experienced unprecedented natural disasters that span all the regions of the country. Our National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) is in no doubt that by 2040, Bhutan will experience extreme natural calamities the likes of which we have never before seen. We have been forewarned!
It is in the face of this vulnerability that we need to exert extreme caution – no one may feign ignorance of the geological faults already proven beyond doubt to exist at the PHP-I project site.
A minor seismic activity in the vicinity of the project site could trigger a calamity so enormous that we would be left wondering what hit us.
The heating surfaces of the massive water bodies being created by the combined dams of the PHP-I and PHP-II - in close proximity of each other – is bound to cause its own unique problems for the region, such as altering weather patterns, causing traditional planting and harvesting season to go for a six, affecting food production.
And, God forbid, should the PHP-I dam fail, the PHP-II project downstream will be the first and immediate casualty. Thus, a flawed decision with the PHP-I project has the potential to cause not one – but two devastating catastrophes.
The project authorities cannot tell us that there are more competent and technically qualified people, than me, overseeing the project. If there were, why weren’t the problems detected before the implementation of the project - during the planning phase?
At the end, I have said this before - human beings may never best nature. It would be downright stupid to try – it will do unto us what we deserve. Nature has already delivered its warnings - with two repetitive landslides at PHP-I dam site. Should we fail to pay heed, we will get what we deserve.
According to this Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan ... the PHP-I and II are located bang in the center of High Seismic Hazard Zone
The geological make of the PHP-I project site
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