The Bizarre Himalayan Mystery

I am aghast!! – I was under the impression that the construction cost of the mysterious Punatsangchhu Hydropower Project-I (PHP-I) - would have by now spiraled to around Nu.100.00 billion or so – from its initial estimate of Nu.35 billion when the project construction began some 18 years back - in 2008. It appears that I am way off in my estimations - the latest news report by TheBhutanese informs us that the cost has actually escalated to a staggering Nu.170.00 billion!! And all that the PHP-I authorities has to show for it is a cute little Buddhist stupa constructed to appease the wrathful Gods who kept conjuring up slides after slides, a dozen or so metal billets grouted into the mountain side that is destined to come crumbling down anytime soon, and a disgraceful indecision as to whether to do a dam or a joke of a barrage - for a project that is still touted as a run-of-the-river project.

Sometime in 2024, quiet obviously, in shameful frustration, Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired senior engineering geologist from the Geological Survey of India, Government of India, came on record and publicly declared as follows, in relation to PHP-I:

“This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

Including this post, I have already written 85 articles on the subject of the perils associated with our hydropower projects – mainly surrounding PHP-I. So, let me keep this one short and sweet, and to the point:

AAA. Given that the young, fragile Himalayan geology of the project site has been totally destabilized by the incessant blasting of the rock formations during the initial stages of the project’s construction, no one is in any doubt that even a minor seismic activity will bring down some sections of the dam site crumbling down into the ravine – burying everything below, including shutting off the flow of the mighty Punatsangchhu that currently turns the turbines of the PHP-II downstream. The dam site has already seen three major, repeated slides on its right bank.

BBB. Seismologists have repeatedly warned that the Great Himalayan region, where Bhutan is located bang in the middle, is due for a massive earthquake – of magnitude 8 and upwards. Look what happened in neighboring Nepal during April of 2015. It is not a question of if, but of when, the mother of all tremors will strike. Recent events related to a nature that is in furious turmoil, should tell us that the “when” is not too distant in the future.

CCC. Thorthormi Tso is all primed to come unbridled. Our authorities are all frantic preparing for this eventuality which we know is as sure as day and night. When that happens, all that we can do is gape in consternation, while both the PHP-I & II are swept away to their final resting place – in the Bay of Bengal, via the Brahmaputra.

DDD. It is now amply clear – absolutely no doubt whatsoever – that the PHP-I will never, ever get done – absolutely, conclusively NOT! So, what is the meaning of being so adamant about going on and on and on?

EEE. Alright, even if, by some miracle the project gets done, we can foretell that the cost will likely touch upwards Nu.400 billion. At that cost of production, try and imagine: what will be the unit cost of electricity produced by this project? Do we hope to be able to sell the electricity from this project at that exorbitant cost? Which idiots will buy? You may recall that even as far back as 2015 – that is eleven years back! -  we were already having a hard time selling our electricity from Dagachu Hydropower Project – at Nu.2.90 per unit.

I have dealt with the Indians from the time I was 8 years old (even my late father worked as an interpreter to DANTAK’s first Chief Engineer) – I have interacted with them in India, as well as in many other countries across the globe - in both the hemispheres. As a race, I know them to be among the most brilliant. Therefore, I refuse to believe that they do not see the futility of their doggedness with this PHP-I enterprise ….

To be fair, for the Bhutanese partners in the project … WE ARE BETTER OFF IF THE PROJECT DOES NOT COME ON LINE - for the simple reason that if the project does not start to generate and start earning – we are not liable to pay back the loan component of the project, at 10% p.a. interest.

That being beside the point, can you guess what exactly is the mystery surrounding this Project? Two Chettrums for your thoughts!

As the Indians would say:

Daal mey kooch kala toh jaroor hai! 😅

Dedicated To Posterity And The History Books

So, obviously we are still not done with the drama and theatre. But the truth happens to be that, all things considered, to expect any less would be to suffer naivety – and naive I certainly am not …. Still, I am only human and I cannot help but be given to wishful thoughts once in a while.

I mean this fiasco in perpetuity – one called Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I (PHP-I) has been going on and on and on and on …. I mean 17 years of cock-&-bull story can get on a man’s nerves after a while.

On 25th March, 2026, the MoENR Minister, Lyoenpo Gem Tshering made a passing mention, during an International Conference in Thimphu, that PHP-III is being worked on. I was incredulous – I mean PHP-I has been in suspended animasion for the past 17 years … and they want to start PHP-III downstream of the same precarious and unsafe Punatsangchu river basin? MAD, MAD, MAD!!!

But hold on a minute! – is it possible that there is logic in their madness? Can this be yet another display of a necessary act in disguise - for wider public consumption? A Hoax? A Red Herring? Well, that may damn well be – I am tickled no end …. Doesh, taagey no khorey!!!

Reports in the print media say that they have announced the reactivation of the PHP-I dam construction yet again - on 10th April, 2026 – replete with pouring of few cauldrons of concrete mixture to complete the spectacle. That is certainly very courageous of the Project people – after pussy-footing around for a whooping 17 years!! Well, like I said above – may be courage is not involved here. LoL!

Look at the march of events that have contributed to the log-drawn, studied theatric that has been the PHP-I.

2007

The Constitution of the Punatsangchu Hydro Power Authority (PHPA) is approved by the Royal Government of Bhutan.

2008

R. N. Khazanchi, the then Managing Director of Tala Hydropower Project is entrusted with the additional charge of PHPA.

2008

Without much ado, R. N. Khazanchi embarks on the first order of business in his capacity as the Officiating MD of the Project with a mandate – he deftly manages to obtain approval from all concerned - to relocate the dam site to a new location upstream of the one determined earlier. He dangles the carrot that doing so would result in more power generation - by as much as 105MW, including the possibility of reducing the depth of the dam by at least 45 Mtrs. And, of course, he conveniently forgets that small matter about something called geotechnical investigation of the proposed site – to ascertain its suitability.

2008

Ground breaking ceremony of Punatsangchu Hydro Power Project is performed.

2009

R N Khazanchi is appointed full-time MD of PHPA-I.

2012

The master conniver - R N Khazanchi - is honored with one of Bhutan’s highest civilian decorations - the Druk Thuksey Medal.

2013

July: First slide on the right bank of the PHP-I dam site occurs.

2016

August: Another slide on the right bank of the PHP-I dam site occurs.

2016

Millions worth of project equipment of the PHPA-I and II is submerged or swept away by the flooding Amochu river – the equipment were stockpiled by its banks in Phuentsholing.

2017

Even as the Project remains stalled for the past ten years and costs are escalating by the billions, the Project’s Managing Director Mr. R N Khazanchi remains stoically unfazed – in fact the man exhibits a spark of genius when he coins a catchy phrase - “geological surprise” - to explain away the repeated slides occurring at the right bank of the PHP-I dam wall.

2018

Given his outstanding diligence in the performance of his responsibilities, R N Khazanchi continued to serve as the MD of PHPA-I as well as PHPA-II, way, way past his retirement age. Finally, when he turned 77 in 2018, he was relieved of his responsibilities and departed the projects.

2019

Yet again, another landslide at the right bank of the PHP-I dam site occurs.

2019

Harassed and frustrated by the repeated slides at the PHP-I dam site, the Project authorities enlist the help of His Eminence the Yonten Lopen of Zhung Dratsang (Central Monk Body) along with 30 monks to perform an elaborate Rimdro (a religious prayer ritual) in the hope of appeasing the local Deities.

2021

Government of India’s National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is hired to review the Central Water Commission (CWC) report related to the design and geological make of the dam site. The expert organization NHPC disagrees with CWC’s assessment of the dam’s safety factor which they had rated at 1.2 to 1.4. NHPC’s assessment concludes that the safety factor of the dam site is way below 1, and hence, not safe enough for building a dam on it.

2021

Faced with a negative report by the NHPC and based on a third-party recommendation, PHP-I dam construction is abandoned in preference to a BARRAGE upstream of the dam site. This option is preferred in place of the dam since the dam site is determined to be geologically weak and unstable for dam construction.

2023

To everybody’s surprise, the PHP-I authorities announce that dam is yet again back on the table for PHP-I. Barrage as a choice is laid to rest.

IMMINENT DANGER FROM THORTHORMI GLACIAL LAKE: According to a 2023 report by the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) of the RGoB, currently Thorthormi lake measures 4.33 KM in length, 1.3 KM in width and a surface area of 4.33 SqKM, making it the largest and most dangerous glacial lake in the country. Thorthormi lake feeds the Punatsangchu river on which sits the Punatsangchu Hydropower projects. Due to rapid melting of the ice, the lake’s size had roughly tripled since the early 2000s.

2023

The RGoB initiates a pilot siphoning project - to mitigate the risk from Thorthormi lake. The project was a failure.

2024

Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired senior engineering geologist from the Geological Survey of India, Government of India, made the following public remarks, in relation to PHP-I:

“This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

2025

According to the 2024-25 Annual Report of the Royal Audit Authority (RAA), of the overall irregularities amounting to nearly Nu.10.00 billion, the two PHPAs accounted for up to 78 percent or Nu.7.8 billion of the total irregularities!

2025

On 25th April, 2015, neighboring Nepal was hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, causing 9,000 deaths and over 22,000 injuries.

THE GREAT HIMALAYAN EARTHQUAKE

Seismologists warn that quakes exceeding magnitude 8 is long overdue in the Himalayan region. India's updated 2025 Seismic Zonation Map encompasses most of the Himalayan range countries, including Bhutan, under the highest ZONE VI Category.

2026

The NCHM initiates yet another siphoning project to mitigate the risk from Thorthormi lake, but is yet again unsuccessful. The risk and danger of the lake causing a GLOF is no longer a matter of IF – but of WHEN!

2026

On 10th April, 2026, the country’s print media is agog with the news that with the pouring of few cauldrons of concrete mixture, PHP-I dam construction is reactivated yet again!

2026

Aging PHPA-I Project Equipment: PHPA-I’s electro-mechanical equipment worth tens of billions run the risk of being rendered useless and none-functional due to over aging. Some of them were bought and installed more than a decade back. This means, even if the dam gets built, the pre-installed equipment may not work – requiring fresh investment to acquire machines that work – begging the question: What is the point of building the dam for PHP-I????

Could this be the reason why the Project authorities are now initiating a brand-new Project PHPA-III – as a leeway?

Doesh … Tagey No Khorey!

The Big One Is Coming

For decades, scientists have been warning of the inevitable: a “Great Himalayan Earthquake” of magnitude 8 or more that could tear through northern India. And the signs are everywhere.

India's updated 2025 Seismic Zonation Map encompasses most of the Himalayan range countries, including Bhutan, under the highest ZONE VI Category.

Mr. Roger Bilham, a prominent American geophysicist stated that “India slides 2 meters beneath the southern edge of Tibet every century. Unfortunately, its northern edge does not slide smoothly but is hung-up (by friction) for hundreds of years and catches up in minutes when this friction is overcome. The slip events, which we call earthquakes, are the inevitable and unavoidable consequence of this motion.”

Bilham is on record that quakes exceeding magnitude 8 have struck the Himalayas every few hundred years. But for the last 70 years, there hasn’t been one large enough to release the pressure building up in the Himalayan arc. He is certain beyond any doubt that they will occur. In his considered view, it is not a matter of “IF” but of “WHEN”.

On 25th April, 2015, neighboring Nepal was hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, followed by two large aftershocks of magnitude 6.6 and 6.7 on Richter's Magnitude Scale, the next day. These seismic events resulted in the death of 9,000 people including tens of thousands of injuries. In Kathmandu and nearby towns alone, 600,000 structures were leveled to the ground.

In relation to our next-door neighbor - Sikkim - the following is reported: 

“Over the past one year, around 13-15 earthquakes of significant magnitude (generally above 4.0) was experienced in Sikkim and the areas around it.”

“In early February 2026, a series of tremors hit the state, with one report indicating 12 earthquakes felt in a single night, and another report mentioning as many as 33 tremors in a 13-hour span on February 7, 2026.”

Closer to home, we are reminded of the futility of trying to contain the GLOF that will result from the breaching of the combined lakes of Thorthorme and Rapstreng:

The siphoning efforts by the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology is said to be ineffective

Three of my trekking support team atop the Thorthorme Tso when I trekked to Lunana to photograph the high peaks in the areas.

Regardless of all the repeated indicators forewarning us of the coming catastrophe, the PHPA-I authorities will have us believe that they can prop up the gigantic Gaselo mountain from collapsing into the ravine, by impregnating the mountainside with motor and grout.

Pile-driving the Gaselo mountain side in an effort to stitch together the unstable rock formation that go to make the PHPA-I dam site where three major slides have already occurred - one each in 2013, 2016 and 2019.

It will take only a minor jolt to bring the Gaselo mountain tumbling down into the ravine, and for the fragile barrier that keeps the two lakes of Thorthorme and Rapstreng separated, to collapse. When that happens, the deluge of water that will be released will be so formidable and voluminous that it will sweep away everything in its path - all the way to the Bay of Bengal!

Bhutan’s Farcical Punatsangchu-I Hydro Power Project

It is simply unbelievable!!! I mean, pray tell me, for how long can the PHPA Project people hope to continue to feed the Bhutanese people their cock and bull story about being able to stabilize a whole mountain with mortar and grout?

The absurdity of it all is so incredible that you begin to wonder – what really is happening here? What are the Bhutanese people not understanding that the Project people are so cock sure about?

This is how the PHPA people hopes to stabilize the whole Gaselo mountain - by driving some hundred odd RCC piles and metal bolts into the mountain side. They tell us that this will stitch together the unstable rock formation that has already seen three major slides.

When the first slide on the right bank of P-I dam site occurred during July of 2013, it became clear to me that the location of the dam and, therefore, the project itself, was unsafe and doomed to failure. Thereafter, year after year, I have been calling for its shutting down. Alas, today, 17 years since the project construction began in 2008, and after the project cost has escalated to close to a staggering Nu.88 billion from its initial budgetary allocation of Nu.35 billion, the project remains stalled – ten years beyond its planned date of completion slated for 2016!!!

Can it be that we are so naïve that we got the stick by its wrong end?

What is the possibility that the Punatsangchu-I Hydro Power Project will be considered a SUCCESS if, and only when, it FAILS and causes untold losses to life and property?

Starkly Contrarian Views

It is interesting how two Bhutanese newspapers of repute – Business Bhutan and TheBhutanese – pursues two starkly contrarian line of thinking on a common subject of national concern: Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I.

In their issue of 17th January, 2026, Business Bhutan eulogizes the PHPA-I in following glowing terms:

“The Punatsangchhu-I project is a story of ambition, perseverance, and regional partnership – an engineering marvel that is poised to leave a lasting mark on the hydropower landscape of South Asia. As the final block rises on the right side of the dam, Bhutan edges ever closer to realizing one of its most ambitious energy dreams.”

TheBhutanese, on the other hand, leaves nothing to imagination when, in their paper dated October 12, 2024 quotes the following as having been said by Dr Yash Pal Shardha, a retired, senior Engineering Geologist of the Geological Survey of India:

“This project (referring to PHPA-I) is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

As for me, I have already written 81 blogs on the subject of our hydroelectric projects .... to say any more would be nothing short of flogging the dead horse!

Wherefore Art Thou Dithering?

One decision that should have been simple and straightforward - that of abandoning the construction of the Punatsangchu-I (PHPA-I) - the two governments of Bhutan and India continue to dither - even after 13 long years when it became clear that the geological make of the dam site was unsuitable for the location of a mammoth dam that would store few thousand trillion tons of water for the planned hydropower project!!! Nothing could have been more foreboding, than the first land slide that occurred on the right bank of the Punatsangchu-I dam site - during July of 2013. Since then, two more slides have occurred – second one in 2016 and the last one in 2019.

Punatsangchu Hydropower Project’s erstwhile Managing Director, R N Khazanchi, is credited with the masterstroke of proposing the relocation of the PHPA-I’s dam site to the present unproven and untested location, 1.4 KMs upstream of its originally designated location. This was a decision that one of the Indian experts had unabashedly called “the best example of deceit and dishonesty by the project people”.

In recognition of his exemplary ingenuity, Bhutan honored Khazanchi with one of its highest civilian decorations - the Druk Thuksey Medal - in 2012. Before he exited the Project in 2018, Khazanchi in turn gifted the country with the poetic coinage “geographical surprise” to explain the repeated slides that kept occurring at the PHPA-I’s dam site. If this project—against all logic—proceeds, and such landslides continue to occur in this conspicuously unstable locale, will it still be a “surprise”?

Here I am running the risk of being called an insane person - but I tell you … I get this very disturbing feeling that the two governments of Bhutan and India are actually waiting for something catastrophic to occur! If that is what it is – they may not have to wait too long for their wish to come true. We are told that the mighty Thorthorme Tsho (lake) in Lunana is all set to breach!

Let alone the danger of Thorthorme lake burst, the world has seen, and continues to see, natural and man-made calamities at a pace, and scale, that are so numerous that it is near impossible to keep track of them. To recount a few:

Topping the list is the US of A …. It has been hit by the most devastating calamity humanity has ever known …. in the form of Donald Trump being elected as their President. The world’s leading country has been hit by every form of catastrophe known to humanity – humongous Wild Fires, Storms, Super Typhoons, Tornadoes, Cyclones, Volcanic Eruptions, Earthquakes, plunging helicopters and crashing aircrafts etc. etc.

No country has been spared …. practically every country in the world has been hit by natural disasters brought on by Global Warming. Even more scary, the Himalayan region has experienced unprecedented natural calamities such as Cloudbursts, Flash Floods, Landslides, Earthquakes etc. etc.

Seismologists and geophysicists have long predicted that a super earthquake in the Himalayan region is long overdue. They offer the reason that it will be caused by the release of the accumulated tectonic pressure in the area where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates continue to collide. I understand that it is not a question of IF … but of WHEN .... the hit will come. But it is predicted to come … there does not appear to be any doubt about it.

So … can we be more responsible to ourselves, our future generations, and to those lifeforms downstream of the Project …. and finally take the decision to abandon the PHPA-I project for good?

We simply cannot continue to take the risk – it would be dumb to do so!

Decision Time Is NOW!

Wishes of any kind is not my thing - I leave that to the dreamers. But on the morning of Thursday the 19th of February, 2015 - Lunar New Year Day, I was driven to make the following New Year Wish:

“I WISH that the two governments of Bhutan and India would get together and take the only sensible decision they can - a decision to abandon the Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects”.

More than ten years later, and after 78 scathing blogs on the subject connected to Bhutan’s hydropower projects - mostly related to the perilous Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects, my views remain unchanged:

There is every reason - now more than ever before - why we must scrap the Punatsangchu Hydropower Project I.

Humanity is experiencing unprecedented natural disasters of every hue and shade - spread across every region of the globe. There are daily reports of floods, tsunami, forest fires, earthquakes, landslides and mudslides - causing devastation at a scale never before experienced.

If that were not enough, I get the feeling that the earth’s magnetic field may have gone a little haywire - causing the muddling of human thought process, the result of which is that even those who were so far considered among the sanest of the sane, have gone and chosen a wobbly old coot with doubtful sanity, to rule and direct them. Perhaps this is also the reason why we have seen numerous aircraft crashes - for no obvious reasons - in all probability due to failure of their navigation systems - caused by interference to their signals - by the shifting of the earth’s magnetic fields.

That said, I believe that all these abnormal occurrences so far are, at best, mild teasers to forewarn humanity of the bigger catastrophes to come . What is said to be due is the truly stupendous, super spoiler - a seismic activity so massive that the geography of the Himalayan region could very well be rearranged in a way that the Mt. Everest could probably be relocated to the North Pole.

Seismologists and geophysicists have long predicted that a super earthquake in the Himalayan region is long overdue. They offer the reason that it will be caused by the release of the accumulated tectonic pressure in the area where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates continue to collide. The ongoing collusion between the two Plates continue to push the Himalayas upwards - causing the mountains in the Himalayan region to grow taller by about 2 CMS every passing year.

The 8.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Russia yesterday - Wednesday the 30th July, 2025 is one of the severest in modern history - it sent tsunami waves into Japan, Hawaii and other places - even as far as West coast of USA. I fear that this is a warning that the dreaded super earthquake that experts have spoken about, is on its way sooner than later.

I have given a few hundred reasons why Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I needs to be shut down. There is no escaping the fact that it is now clear beyond an iota of doubt that the Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I is a proven potpourri of evil and bad Karma - it is sinister that it is still standing. Let us recognize it for what it is and cut our losses - and run when we still have the time to do so!

Imagine a force that can push the whole Himalayan range to rise more than 2 CMs each year! As I have said umpteen times before - DO NOT TRY TO BEST NATURE - it is simply, utterly IMPOSSIBLE!

Even if it is not true what Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired Senior Geologist with the Geological Survey of India (GSI) had said, that “This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people…...”, we have to bear in mind that the Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects are located bang in the middle of the country’s seismically high hazard zone. That should already give us nightmares!

The picture tells the story: Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan drawn by IIT, Roorkee - one of India's foremost institutes for science and engineering.

We are seeing heightened seismic activities in recent years, caused by unchecked global warming. In the face of such clear and present danger, do we dare take any chances? How remote is the possibility that the next jolt might be closer to home?

PHPA-I: Step-by-Step Record of An Impending Catastrophe's Journey

To date, I have 78 articles (including this one) on the subject related to Bhutan's hydropower projects. For years, I have been hollering for the shutting down of the PHPA-I. My fear is that should the dam ever gets built - the provability of it failing cannot be ruled out. If this happens, it will sweep away the PHPA-II downstream of it, and everything else - all the way to the Bay of Bengal - to serve as fish feed.

Nature has given us warnings – again and again and again, but we are adamant and the project is still standing, regardless.

Sinking, sinking and sinking!!! ... The PHPA-I & II are located in seismically hazardous zone.

Not only nature … but even human experts have warned us. One of them is supposed to have declared thus:

Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired senior Engineering Geologist from the Geological Survey of India (GSI) is on record, as follow:

“This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

And yet, despite all that, the Project is still standing. The Project authorities adamantly refuse to heed nature’s warnings …. they blatantly ignore qualified expert's views! Well, no matter …. I am still hollering! - if not in the hope that it will make any difference - but for the sake of posterity. When the shit finally hits the fan, the Project authorities cannot feign ignorance - they have been forewarned!

Let me walk you through the following step-by-step journey of the doomed Project:

October 1, 2007

The Constitution of the Punatsangchu Hydro Power Authority (PHPA-I) is approved by the Royal Government of Bhutan.

2008

Shifting the PHPA-I’s Dam Site proposed and Accepted

R. N. Khazanchi (although he became MD of the PHPA only in 2009, he was given additional charge of PHPA-I even while he was still serving as MD of Tala Project). This explains why he is named as the person responsible for making the recommendations to shift the original dam site. He offered the excuse that doing so would result in more power generation - by as much as 105MW. He further reasoned that the depth of the dam would be lesser by 45 Mtrs.

Based on his recommendations, the Bhutanese Cabinet approved the shifting of the construction of the PHPA-I dam to the new site - at the current unstable location - roughly 1.5 KMs upstream of the original site.

Strangely, no one seems to have questioned that such an important and impactful decision was being made - without carrying out a proper geological study/investigation of the new dam site.

November 11, 2008

Implementation of the Project begins - with a completion date set for 2016.

2009: Appointment of the Project’s CEO

Mr. Rajinder Nath Khazanchi (R. N. Khazanchi) is appointed Managing Director of PHPA.

2011

The first sign of instability was detected on the right abutment of the dam site.

2012

In recognition and appreciation of his dedicated service, and for his contributions to the country’s socio-economic development, R. N. Khazanchi is awarded Druk Thuksey Medal.

July, 2013

First slide on the right bank of the dam occurs.

Strangely, monitoring of both the surface and subsurface was started only from January 2015 - after two long years of the occurrence of the ominous slide.

August, 2016

Another slide occurs.

April, 2018

R. N. Khanchi’s term with the PHPA ends. But before he departs, he gifts the country with the now famous coinage: “Geological Surprises” - in a bid to explain the repeated disasters occurring at the PHPA-I’s dam site.

January, 2019

Yet again, another slide at the right bank of the dam site occurs.

This time, the Project authorities embark on a series of preventive measures such as grouting, cable anchor, RCC pile etc. etc. Shotcretings were carried out at various levels and benches - in a futile attempt to best nature.

February, 2019

Nothing they do seems to be working. In desperation, the PHPA-I authorities sought divine intervention - they conducted a Rimdro seeking God’s help.

Beginning 28th February, 2019, the Project authorities began the performance of a 3-days Rimdro (a religious prayer ritual) at the PHPA-I dam site in an effort to seek God's help. The event was presided over by His Eminence the Yonten Lopen of Zhung Dratsang (Central Monk Body) along with 30 monks.

November, 2021

It is announced that PHPA-I dam construction is likely to be abandoned – based on a third-party foreign expert’s recommendations that a barrage upstream would likely be a less costly and more effective alternative to building a dam at the geologically unstable site that had already experienced multiple slides.

July, 2022

Reporting to the joint sitting of the Parliament, the Royal Audit Authority (RAA) charges PHPA-I of financial irregularity - for the period 2020-21 - amounting to a staggering Nu. 1,920.237 million.

September, 2023

It is announced that dam construction is back on the table - the idea of a barrage is put to rest.

August, 2024

During a public debate on the issue on BBS TV, the Energy & Natural Resources Minister reiterates that the PHPA-I will proceed with the construction of a dam, effectively putting to an end the prolonged debate over whether to build a dam or a barrage.

March, 2025

MoENR Minister announces that PHPA-I authorities will resume dam construction by June, 2025.

AS YOU SAW, SO SHALL YOU REAP!

It has taken the Project authorities a total of 17 years of delays, caused by periodic sliding of the mountain side, strange and persistent geological surprises, monumental financial mismanagement, corruption at unprecedented scale, and deliberate omissions and calculated indecisions - but the decision is yet again made - to go ahead and do the Project.

May God Almighty save us all 🙏

Finally, The Truth Is Out!

The Bhutanese people must offer thanks to Mr. Yoginder Sharma, former Technical Director at the Punatsangchu-I and Punatsangchu-II projects from 2010-2017, for finally having the guts to come out with the truth - that the project consultants to the two projects – Water and Power Consultancy Services (India) Limited (WAPCOS) and Central Water Commission (CWC) - are solely responsible for the disaster that remains an ongoing reality with our two largest failed hydro projects: P-I and P-II.

On Thursday, February 19, 2015 – that is one full decade back - in my article titled “My New Year Wish”, I wrote the following:

“Even if the two governments do not agree to scrap the Punatsangchu projects, they should accept that WAPCOS (consultants to all the hydropower projects in Bhutan) has proven to be anything but competent to undertake any further investigations in the case of these or future hydropower projects in Bhutan. Thus, while we must ensure that WAPCOS is barred from future involvement in our hydro power projects based on their terrible record so far, we should now look at engaging consultants from third countries to investigate if the geological make of the Punatsangchu areas is suitable for large hydro power projects. Through the engagement of better-qualified consultants, we should ascertain whether it is wise to continue with the projects - or scrap it, to prevent further losses”.

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2015/02/my-new-year-wish.html

Two years later, on Thursday, June 22, 2017, I wrote another article on the matter related to WAPCOS resulting from a Seminar co-hosted by the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation & Environment (UWICE), Bumthang, in collaboration with the New Delhi based International Rivers, USA.

Having been invited to participate in the said Seminar, I reported the following to the nation, through my blog titled: “Environmental Governance and Science of Hydropower Development in Bhutan and India":

“One of the speakers at the Seminar pointed out that he had seen a number of works done by the principal Consultants to the PHPA I & II – WAPCOS. They were so bad and shoddy that he had recommended that the WAPCOS be banned from undertaking any work in the hydro-power sector”.

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2017/06/environmental-governance-and-science-of.html

Now that the truth is out in the open, is anybody listening?

PHP-I Dam Construction: Human Beings May Never Best Nature

After being in the works for nearly 16 years and having gone through close to 3 dozen Technical Committee Meetings to determine the tenability of the project, and with a humungous cost overrun projected, some believe, to exceed 400% of its initial estimate, the 1,200MW PHP-I Project Authority was forced to admit - after repeated landslides that occurred at the location of its dam site - that the proposed location of the dam was unsuitable - given its unstable geological formation. Instead, they announced that they were opting for a barrage in place of the dam - to be located further upstream of the project site.

The larger of the two PHP Projects was slated to be completed by November, 2016.

A barrage to turn the massive turbines designed to generate 1,200 MW of electricity? LUDICROUS!! I silently sniggered at the decision - because I knew that it was nothing more than a face-saving move - the project authorities would damn well know that a barrage was not an option for a project of the size of PHP-I. I was sure that in time, they would admit to their mistakes, and finally announce the closure of the project - for good.

Sadly, no such thing is apparently contemplated! On the other hand, after dithering for over one and half decades, we are now told that they are, yet again, adamant on building a dam at the same original site. That the foolhardy idea of a barrage has been shelved!

Barrage be damned! It is once again back to riveting and damming.

For an economy the size of India’s, the PHP-I's projected cost of Rs.200.00 billion is small change. But that is cold comfort for Bhutan. I mean it is not the financial loss that should bother us - after all the project’s ToR is clear - the project has been taken up on the assurance that it shall be self-liquidating - meaning that unless the project comes on line and begins to generate income, it is no loss of any marbles to Bhutan. Even when, rather if, the project comes on line, it has the responsibility to liquidate all its costs – only loss Bhutan will likely suffer is the loss of gain, for all our pains!

Frankly, Bhutan’s worry should go beyond financial gain, or loss. Our worry should be the increasing unpredictability of the weather – caused by global warming. Already this year we have experienced unprecedented natural disasters that span all the regions of the country. Our National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) is in no doubt that by 2040, Bhutan will experience extreme natural calamities the likes of which we have never before seen. We have been forewarned!

It is in the face of this vulnerability that we need to exert extreme caution – no one may feign ignorance of the geological faults already proven beyond doubt to exist at the PHP-I project site.

A minor seismic activity in the vicinity of the project site could trigger a calamity so enormous that we would be left wondering what hit us.

The heating surfaces of the massive water bodies being created by the combined dams of the PHP-I and PHP-II - in close proximity of each other – is bound to cause its own unique problems for the region, such as altering weather patterns, causing traditional planting and harvesting season to go for a six, affecting food production.

And, God forbid, should the PHP-I dam fail, the PHP-II project downstream will be the first and immediate casualty. Thus, a flawed decision with the PHP-I project has the potential to cause not one – but two devastating catastrophes.

The project authorities cannot tell us that there are more competent and technically qualified people, than me, overseeing the project. If there were, why weren’t the problems detected before the implementation of the project - during the planning phase?

At the end, I have said this before - human beings may never best nature. It would be downright stupid to try – it will do unto us what we deserve. Nature has already delivered its warnings - with two repetitive landslides at PHP-I dam site. Should we fail to pay heed, we will get what we deserve.

According to this Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan ... the PHP-I and II are located bang in the center of High Seismic Hazard Zone

The geological make of the PHP-I project site

Welcoming the Winds of Change

As of this post, I have a total of 75 posts related to our hydroelectric power projects. And I am not embarrassed or ashamed that 99.99% of those posts are negative posts - posts that unabashedly chastise our largest and most infamous hydropower undertakings. But I take pride in the fact that they also happen to be among my most popular posts. In terms of readership, three of my posts on the subject rank 4th, 6th and 7th highest read posts on my blog which, as of today, comprises of a staggering 1,127 posts.

Winds of Change?: The advent of a new era in our hydroelectric power aspirations

Notwithstanding my unrestrained, high-octave tirades against our more recent hydroelectric projects, I dare believe that I remain absolved of any wrong doing because I have made it clear that my revulsion for the projects is for the perilous, debilitating manner in which they have been done in Bhutan - NOT hydropower projects per se.

But now I sense that the gentle winds of change is sweeping in - to stoke the fires of our abundant hydroelectric potential - I am truly encouraged!

Harnessing the power of the sun cannot amount to more than a mere stop-gap arrangement - something of a fill-in-the-gap kind of thing - something to tide us over our immediate and burgeoning domestic demand. In my thinking, the real deal still remains the unbridled power that the bountiful nature has gifted us with - the energy and power of the free-flowing WATER.

The recently announced MoU between DGPC and Adani Group of India to explore the possibility of undertaking the construction of the Wangchhu Hydropower Project is a most welcome news. I hope it happens.

While it is as yet unclear as to what will finally be tinkered between the DGPC and the Adani Group – if at all, my own aspirations would be that the collaboration undergoes a marginal upscaling and that it is implemented as a staggered, multi-stage undertaking.

One: implement the 180MW Bunakha Reservoir Hydroelectric Project (BRHEP)

          for which DPR has already been approved for construction during February of 2014.

Two: A couple of years down the line, when major dam construction work is nearing completion,

          start work on the 900MW run-of-the-river scheme Wangchhu Hydropower Project

          at the tail end of the already much abused Wangchhu. I think no one should be in any

          doubt of the multi-faceted benefits to this approach of project implementation.

We also hear that the ill-fated 600MW Kholongchhu Hydroelectric Power Project in the East of the country is likely to happen – in collaboration with the TATA Group of India. That would be great as well. If that arrangement materializes, I am encouraged to believe that another equally valuable opportunity for partnership - one that is not yet in the scheme of things, could be considered for the mutual benefit of both the partners.

Our Energy Potential To Power Our Growth

Writing for the Business Insider, Polly Thompson, on 25th November, 2023 made a startling revelation that Bhutan, a longtime exporter of hydropower to India, imported US$20.7 million worth of electricity during the year 2023.

Amazing numbers! But if it is true, we have to begin to wonder: what can we attribute this reversal of fortune to? A quantum jump in domestic consumption? That is good news! It means, Bhutan need no longer be dependent on the export market for our energy production potential: our in-country demand and consumption can finally deliver us from the cruel clutches of the single-basket market vagary.

Such a shift in scenario opens up a whole lot of possibilities for Bhutan – for one, project financing. I believe that access to finance will now be lot easier than in the past.

Bhutan's Hydro Committee in 2018 recommended that Amocu and Chamkharchu basins remain hydropower free for all times to come. Accordingly, the withdrawal of the Amochu and Chamkharchu Hydropower Projects was announced by the Royal Government of Bhutan during the National Assembly Session in May, 2019. Regardless, we have many other potential projects in the pipeline.

For years some have unjustly accused me of being anti-hydropower although I have gone hoarse shouting that I am NOT against hydropower – but in the MANNER IN WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY DONE IN BHUTAN. Hopefully, now we can look forward to doing things the right way: speedily, with the right intentions, minimal corruption, purposeful and appropriate management team, competent design and engineering, environmentally less destructive, and site selection that will not encounter the now famous “geological surprises” in the middle of project implementation.

His Majesty the King was categorical during His 116th National Day speech that in the scheme of things, we must not fail to harness our abundant potential in wind, solar and hydro - to produce energy to power our growth. I agree!

So, let us put the show on the road – let us begin with the Bunakha Reservoir Project to start with – I am talking of just the reservoir – sans the HE component for the moment. It will be the fastest, cheapest and technically less daunting! It will nicely complement the planned Gelephu initiative.