Decision Time Is NOW!

Wishes of any kind is not my thing - I leave that to the dreamers. But on the morning of Thursday the 19th of February, 2015 - Lunar New Year Day, I was driven to make the following New Year Wish:

“I WISH that the two governments of Bhutan and India would get together and take the only sensible decision they can - a decision to abandon the Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects”.

More than ten years later, and after 78 scathing blogs on the subject connected to Bhutan’s hydropower projects - mostly related to the perilous Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects, my views remain unchanged:

There is every reason - now more than ever before - why we must scrap the Punatsangchu Hydropower Project I.

Humanity is experiencing unprecedented natural disasters of every hue and shade - spread across every region of the globe. There are daily reports of floods, tsunami, forest fires, earthquakes, landslides and mudslides - causing devastation at a scale never before experienced.

If that were not enough, I get the feeling that the earth’s magnetic field may have gone a little haywire - causing the muddling of human thought process, the result of which is that even those who were so far considered among the sanest of the sane, have gone and chosen a wobbly old coot with doubtful sanity, to rule and direct them. Perhaps this is also the reason why we have seen numerous aircraft crashes - for no obvious reasons - in all probability due to failure of their navigation systems - caused by interference to their signals - by the shifting of the earth’s magnetic fields.

That said, I believe that all these abnormal occurrences so far are, at best, mild teasers to forewarn humanity of the bigger catastrophes to come . What is said to be due is the truly stupendous, super spoiler - a seismic activity so massive that the geography of the Himalayan region could very well be rearranged in a way that the Mt. Everest could probably be relocated to the North Pole.

Seismologists and geophysicists have long predicted that a super earthquake in the Himalayan region is long overdue. They offer the reason that it will be caused by the release of the accumulated tectonic pressure in the area where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates continue to collide. The ongoing collusion between the two Plates continue to push the Himalayas upwards - causing the mountains in the Himalayan region to grow taller by about 2 CMS every passing year.

The 8.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Russia yesterday - Wednesday the 30th July, 2025 is one of the severest in modern history - it sent tsunami waves into Japan, Hawaii and other places - even as far as West coast of USA. I fear that this is a warning that the dreaded super earthquake that experts have spoken about, is on its way sooner than later.

I have given a few hundred reasons why Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I needs to be shut down. There is no escaping the fact that it is now clear beyond an iota of doubt that the Punatsangchu Hydropower Project-I is a proven potpourri of evil and bad Karma - it is sinister that it is still standing. Let us recognize it for what it is and cut our losses - and run when we still have the time to do so!

Imagine a force that can push the whole Himalayan range to rise more than 2 CMs each year! As I have said umpteen times before - DO NOT TRY TO BEST NATURE - it is simply, utterly IMPOSSIBLE!

Even if it is not true what Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired Senior Geologist with the Geological Survey of India (GSI) had said, that “This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people…...”, we have to bear in mind that the Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects are located bang in the middle of the country’s seismically high hazard zone. That should already give us nightmares!

The picture tells the story: Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan drawn by IIT, Roorkee - one of India's foremost institutes for science and engineering.

We are seeing heightened seismic activities in recent years, caused by unchecked global warming. In the face of such clear and present danger, do we dare take any chances? How remote is the possibility that the next jolt might be closer to home?

PHPA-I: Step-by-Step Record of An Impending Catastrophe's Journey

To date, I have 78 articles (including this one) on the subject related to Bhutan's hydropower projects. For years, I have been hollering for the shutting down of the PHPA-I. My fear is that should the dam ever gets built - the provability of it failing cannot be ruled out. If this happens, it will sweep away the PHPA-II downstream of it, and everything else - all the way to the Bay of Bengal - to serve as fish feed.

Nature has given us warnings – again and again and again, but we are adamant and the project is still standing, regardless.

Sinking, sinking and sinking!!! ... The PHPA-I & II are located in seismically hazardous zone.

Not only nature … but even human experts have warned us. One of them is supposed to have declared thus:

Dr. Yash Pal Shardha, a retired senior Engineering Geologist from the Geological Survey of India (GSI) is on record, as follow:

“This project is the best example of deceit and dishonesty by project people. A very good investigative Detailed Project Report at one place was done but the project was shifted to another place without conducting any investigation and whatever investigations were done were cooked up data knowing fully well we are going to face problems and we went for the tender stage and drilled a few holes and the project started for construction and now see fate of the project and will it ever be completed.”

And yet, despite all that, the Project is still standing. The Project authorities adamantly refuse to heed nature’s warnings …. they blatantly ignore qualified expert's views! Well, no matter …. I am still hollering! - if not in the hope that it will make any difference - but for the sake of posterity. When the shit finally hits the fan, the Project authorities cannot feign ignorance - they have been forewarned!

Let me walk you through the following step-by-step journey of the doomed Project:

October 1, 2007

The Constitution of the Punatsangchu Hydro Power Authority (PHPA-I) is approved by the Royal Government of Bhutan.

2008

Shifting the PHPA-I’s Dam Site proposed and Accepted

R. N. Khazanchi (although he became MD of the PHPA only in 2009, he was given additional charge of PHPA-I even while he was still serving as MD of Tala Project). This explains why he is named as the person responsible for making the recommendations to shift the original dam site. He offered the excuse that doing so would result in more power generation - by as much as 105MW. He further reasoned that the depth of the dam would be lesser by 45 Mtrs.

Based on his recommendations, the Bhutanese Cabinet approved the shifting of the construction of the PHPA-I dam to the new site - at the current unstable location - roughly 1.5 KMs upstream of the original site.

Strangely, no one seems to have questioned that such an important and impactful decision was being made - without carrying out a proper geological study/investigation of the new dam site.

November 11, 2008

Implementation of the Project begins - with a completion date set for 2016.

2009: Appointment of the Project’s CEO

Mr. Rajinder Nath Khazanchi (R. N. Khazanchi) is appointed Managing Director of PHPA.

2011

The first sign of instability was detected on the right abutment of the dam site.

2012

In recognition and appreciation of his dedicated service, and for his contributions to the country’s socio-economic development, R. N. Khazanchi is awarded Druk Thuksey Medal.

July, 2013

First slide on the right bank of the dam occurs.

Strangely, monitoring of both the surface and subsurface was started only from January 2015 - after two long years of the occurrence of the ominous slide.

August, 2016

Another slide occurs.

April, 2018

R. N. Khanchi’s term with the PHPA ends. But before he departs, he gifts the country with the now famous coinage: “Geological Surprises” - in a bid to explain the repeated disasters occurring at the PHPA-I’s dam site.

January, 2019

Yet again, another slide at the right bank of the dam site occurs.

This time, the Project authorities embark on a series of preventive measures such as grouting, cable anchor, RCC pile etc. etc. Shotcretings were carried out at various levels and benches - in a futile attempt to best nature.

February, 2019

Nothing they do seems to be working. In desperation, the PHPA-I authorities sought divine intervention - they conducted a Rimdro seeking God’s help.

Beginning 28th February, 2019, the Project authorities began the performance of a 3-days Rimdro (a religious prayer ritual) at the PHPA-I dam site in an effort to seek God's help. The event was presided over by His Eminence the Yonten Lopen of Zhung Dratsang (Central Monk Body) along with 30 monks.

November, 2021

It is announced that PHPA-I dam construction is likely to be abandoned – based on a third-party foreign expert’s recommendations that a barrage upstream would likely be a less costly and more effective alternative to building a dam at the geologically unstable site that had already experienced multiple slides.

July, 2022

Reporting to the joint sitting of the Parliament, the Royal Audit Authority (RAA) charges PHPA-I of financial irregularity - for the period 2020-21 - amounting to a staggering Nu. 1,920.237 million.

September, 2023

It is announced that dam construction is back on the table - the idea of a barrage is put to rest.

August, 2024

During a public debate on the issue on BBS TV, the Energy & Natural Resources Minister reiterates that the PHPA-I will proceed with the construction of a dam, effectively putting to an end the prolonged debate over whether to build a dam or a barrage.

March, 2025

MoENR Minister announces that PHPA-I authorities will resume dam construction by June, 2025.

AS YOU SAW, SO SHALL YOU REAP!

It has taken the Project authorities a total of 17 years of delays, caused by periodic sliding of the mountain side, strange and persistent geological surprises, monumental financial mismanagement, corruption at unprecedented scale, and deliberate omissions and calculated indecisions - but the decision is yet again made - to go ahead and do the Project.

May God Almighty save us all 🙏

Finally, The Truth Is Out!

The Bhutanese people must offer thanks to Mr. Yoginder Sharma, former Technical Director at the Punatsangchu-I and Punatsangchu-II projects from 2010-2017, for finally having the guts to come out with the truth - that the project consultants to the two projects – Water and Power Consultancy Services (India) Limited (WAPCOS) and Central Water Commission (CWC) - are solely responsible for the disaster that remains an ongoing reality with our two largest failed hydro projects: P-I and P-II.

On Thursday, February 19, 2015 – that is one full decade back - in my article titled “My New Year Wish”, I wrote the following:

“Even if the two governments do not agree to scrap the Punatsangchu projects, they should accept that WAPCOS (consultants to all the hydropower projects in Bhutan) has proven to be anything but competent to undertake any further investigations in the case of these or future hydropower projects in Bhutan. Thus, while we must ensure that WAPCOS is barred from future involvement in our hydro power projects based on their terrible record so far, we should now look at engaging consultants from third countries to investigate if the geological make of the Punatsangchu areas is suitable for large hydro power projects. Through the engagement of better-qualified consultants, we should ascertain whether it is wise to continue with the projects - or scrap it, to prevent further losses”.

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2015/02/my-new-year-wish.html

Two years later, on Thursday, June 22, 2017, I wrote another article on the matter related to WAPCOS resulting from a Seminar co-hosted by the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation & Environment (UWICE), Bumthang, in collaboration with the New Delhi based International Rivers, USA.

Having been invited to participate in the said Seminar, I reported the following to the nation, through my blog titled: “Environmental Governance and Science of Hydropower Development in Bhutan and India":

“One of the speakers at the Seminar pointed out that he had seen a number of works done by the principal Consultants to the PHPA I & II – WAPCOS. They were so bad and shoddy that he had recommended that the WAPCOS be banned from undertaking any work in the hydro-power sector”.

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2017/06/environmental-governance-and-science-of.html

Now that the truth is out in the open, is anybody listening?

PHP-I Dam Construction: Human Beings May Never Best Nature

After being in the works for nearly 16 years and having gone through close to 3 dozen Technical Committee Meetings to determine the tenability of the project, and with a humungous cost overrun projected, some believe, to exceed 400% of its initial estimate, the 1,200MW PHP-I Project Authority was forced to admit - after repeated landslides that occurred at the location of its dam site - that the proposed location of the dam was unsuitable - given its unstable geological formation. Instead, they announced that they were opting for a barrage in place of the dam - to be located further upstream of the project site.

The larger of the two PHP Projects was slated to be completed by November, 2016.

A barrage to turn the massive turbines designed to generate 1,200 MW of electricity? LUDICROUS!! I silently sniggered at the decision - because I knew that it was nothing more than a face-saving move - the project authorities would damn well know that a barrage was not an option for a project of the size of PHP-I. I was sure that in time, they would admit to their mistakes, and finally announce the closure of the project - for good.

Sadly, no such thing is apparently contemplated! On the other hand, after dithering for over one and half decades, we are now told that they are, yet again, adamant on building a dam at the same original site. That the foolhardy idea of a barrage has been shelved!

Barrage be damned! It is once again back to riveting and damming.

For an economy the size of India’s, the PHP-I's projected cost of Rs.200.00 billion is small change. But that is cold comfort for Bhutan. I mean it is not the financial loss that should bother us - after all the project’s ToR is clear - the project has been taken up on the assurance that it shall be self-liquidating - meaning that unless the project comes on line and begins to generate income, it is no loss of any marbles to Bhutan. Even when, rather if, the project comes on line, it has the responsibility to liquidate all its costs – only loss Bhutan will likely suffer is the loss of gain, for all our pains!

Frankly, Bhutan’s worry should go beyond financial gain, or loss. Our worry should be the increasing unpredictability of the weather – caused by global warming. Already this year we have experienced unprecedented natural disasters that span all the regions of the country. Our National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) is in no doubt that by 2040, Bhutan will experience extreme natural calamities the likes of which we have never before seen. We have been forewarned!

It is in the face of this vulnerability that we need to exert extreme caution – no one may feign ignorance of the geological faults already proven beyond doubt to exist at the PHP-I project site.

A minor seismic activity in the vicinity of the project site could trigger a calamity so enormous that we would be left wondering what hit us.

The heating surfaces of the massive water bodies being created by the combined dams of the PHP-I and PHP-II - in close proximity of each other – is bound to cause its own unique problems for the region, such as altering weather patterns, causing traditional planting and harvesting season to go for a six, affecting food production.

And, God forbid, should the PHP-I dam fail, the PHP-II project downstream will be the first and immediate casualty. Thus, a flawed decision with the PHP-I project has the potential to cause not one – but two devastating catastrophes.

The project authorities cannot tell us that there are more competent and technically qualified people, than me, overseeing the project. If there were, why weren’t the problems detected before the implementation of the project - during the planning phase?

At the end, I have said this before - human beings may never best nature. It would be downright stupid to try – it will do unto us what we deserve. Nature has already delivered its warnings - with two repetitive landslides at PHP-I dam site. Should we fail to pay heed, we will get what we deserve.

According to this Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan ... the PHP-I and II are located bang in the center of High Seismic Hazard Zone

The geological make of the PHP-I project site

Welcoming the Winds of Change

As of this post, I have a total of 75 posts related to our hydroelectric power projects. And I am not embarrassed or ashamed that 99.99% of those posts are negative posts - posts that unabashedly chastise our largest and most infamous hydropower undertakings. But I take pride in the fact that they also happen to be among my most popular posts. In terms of readership, three of my posts on the subject rank 4th, 6th and 7th highest read posts on my blog which, as of today, comprises of a staggering 1,127 posts.

Winds of Change?: The advent of a new era in our hydroelectric power aspirations

Notwithstanding my unrestrained, high-octave tirades against our more recent hydroelectric projects, I dare believe that I remain absolved of any wrong doing because I have made it clear that my revulsion for the projects is for the perilous, debilitating manner in which they have been done in Bhutan - NOT hydropower projects per se.

But now I sense that the gentle winds of change is sweeping in - to stoke the fires of our abundant hydroelectric potential - I am truly encouraged!

Harnessing the power of the sun cannot amount to more than a mere stop-gap arrangement - something of a fill-in-the-gap kind of thing - something to tide us over our immediate and burgeoning domestic demand. In my thinking, the real deal still remains the unbridled power that the bountiful nature has gifted us with - the energy and power of the free-flowing WATER.

The recently announced MoU between DGPC and Adani Group of India to explore the possibility of undertaking the construction of the Wangchhu Hydropower Project is a most welcome news. I hope it happens.

While it is as yet unclear as to what will finally be tinkered between the DGPC and the Adani Group – if at all, my own aspirations would be that the collaboration undergoes a marginal upscaling and that it is implemented as a staggered, multi-stage undertaking.

One: implement the 180MW Bunakha Reservoir Hydroelectric Project (BRHEP)

          for which DPR has already been approved for construction during February of 2014.

Two: A couple of years down the line, when major dam construction work is nearing completion,

          start work on the 900MW run-of-the-river scheme Wangchhu Hydropower Project

          at the tail end of the already much abused Wangchhu. I think no one should be in any

          doubt of the multi-faceted benefits to this approach of project implementation.

We also hear that the ill-fated 600MW Kholongchhu Hydroelectric Power Project in the East of the country is likely to happen – in collaboration with the TATA Group of India. That would be great as well. If that arrangement materializes, I am encouraged to believe that another equally valuable opportunity for partnership - one that is not yet in the scheme of things, could be considered for the mutual benefit of both the partners.

Our Energy Potential To Power Our Growth

Writing for the Business Insider, Polly Thompson, on 25th November, 2023 made a startling revelation that Bhutan, a longtime exporter of hydropower to India, imported US$20.7 million worth of electricity during the year 2023.

Amazing numbers! But if it is true, we have to begin to wonder: what can we attribute this reversal of fortune to? A quantum jump in domestic consumption? That is good news! It means, Bhutan need no longer be dependent on the export market for our energy production potential: our in-country demand and consumption can finally deliver us from the cruel clutches of the single-basket market vagary.

Such a shift in scenario opens up a whole lot of possibilities for Bhutan – for one, project financing. I believe that access to finance will now be lot easier than in the past.

Bhutan's Hydro Committee in 2018 recommended that Amocu and Chamkharchu basins remain hydropower free for all times to come. Accordingly, the withdrawal of the Amochu and Chamkharchu Hydropower Projects was announced by the Royal Government of Bhutan during the National Assembly Session in May, 2019. Regardless, we have many other potential projects in the pipeline.

For years some have unjustly accused me of being anti-hydropower although I have gone hoarse shouting that I am NOT against hydropower – but in the MANNER IN WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY DONE IN BHUTAN. Hopefully, now we can look forward to doing things the right way: speedily, with the right intentions, minimal corruption, purposeful and appropriate management team, competent design and engineering, environmentally less destructive, and site selection that will not encounter the now famous “geological surprises” in the middle of project implementation.

His Majesty the King was categorical during His 116th National Day speech that in the scheme of things, we must not fail to harness our abundant potential in wind, solar and hydro - to produce energy to power our growth. I agree!

So, let us put the show on the road – let us begin with the Bunakha Reservoir Project to start with – I am talking of just the reservoir – sans the HE component for the moment. It will be the fastest, cheapest and technically less daunting! It will nicely complement the planned Gelephu initiative.

A Hydropower Abundant Nation’s Angst

Just yesterday evening, sitting at the round table of my favorite restaurant Paday Bistro, I was seeking help from two friends - Lhakpa and Gyamtsho - to help me stock up on some barrels of kerosene fuel. Also to let me know where I could buy kerosene stoves.

One of them asked: “What for?”

I responded: “I get the sense that the freeze this winter could likely be more pronounced than in all of the earlier winters”.

“Why would you say so?”

“I fear we may suffer more acute shortage of electricity for lighting and heating - caused by quantum jump in domestic consumption of electricity”.

“You fear so? Then get a wood-fired Bukhari - we are a country with abundant wood”.

“But the place where I live does not provide for the use of Bukharis. In any event, managing Bukhari wood is a real pain in the nether regions, in addition to being environmentally destructive".

“Think of something else then - kerosene stoves could choke you to death with its noxious fumes”.

“Is there a difference - being dead with kerosene fumes or being frozen to death?”

It appears that my fears may be unfounded. This morning the KUENSEL carried the following report, which would indicate that the government is mindful of the impending problem. They hope to solve the problem, yet again, by importing electricity from India - this time even more than in the past - resulting in an additional import bill of Nu.6.00 billion:

Is it possible that we might consider curtailing consumption - instead of increasing imports?

I have been saying this for the past one and half decades: Why is it that a country that claims to be a net exporter of “clean” electricity has to import electricity from another country? Why do citizen’s need to line up for hours at the fuel kiosks - to purchase imported energy to cook and heat homes?

Why do we have to build hydropower projects that never get done - instead of building a damn dam across the Wangchhu - to store water during the summer months when there is excess water, to feed the idling projects downstream in Tala and Chhukha, during the winter months?

I have proposed this ten years back - read at the following:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2014/02/bunakha-reservoir-daming-wangchu.html

What the dang hell is wrong with the Bhutanese people? Are we total dullards or what?

I suppose - like I jokingly told few friends a week or two back, that the government’s answer to the simplest of the citizen’s questions would be:

“Choe gii haa mego se”

“It is beyond your understanding”.

The Diminishing Allure Of Hydropower

On Thursday, February 22, 2018 I wrote as follows:

"Take, for instance, the matter concerning the de-silting of the dam. How well have they planned/designed it? How effectively are they going to be able to de-silt the mammoth dam of the few trillion tons of silt and muck that will be deposited annually into the belly of the dam, by the flooding Punatsangchhu? Even if they have a good design, where and how are they going to dump the muck?

If the dam ever gets built, what kind of water body is the 130 Mtrs. high dam going to create? How far will the back flow be? Will the water mass trigger earth quakes? Will it alter weather patterns?"

Today, more than five years since, my fears have been proven to be not unfounded. Read the following:

Sedimentation is like pouring sand into a tumbler filled with water. The volume of water drops proportional to the amount of sand poured into it

Bhutan is lucky - in recent years our King has repeatedly cautioned his subjects about the perils of our continued romance with hydropower. We now seem to have accepted that generation of electricity from hydropower is old hat. That it is no longer seen to be economical - technological advances in other forms of energy production has rendered the hydropower redundant, and ecologically unsafe. There appears to be a welcome shift in thinking.

Sadly, something that we cannot escape is the phenomenal cost of decommissioning the dams when their useful life run out. Happily, you and I would be fertilizing some daffodils in some remote wilderness 😂

P1 : A Very Expensive Joke

The Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects I is now becoming a joke – a very expensive joke. Today’s Kuensel tells us that the DPR for the proposed barrage to be located 820 Meters upstream of the project will soon be ready – to fill in for the failed Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects I dam construction project.

The KUENSEL Report that says that the DPR for the P1 is still a work in progress

Either the project managers at the Punatsangchu Hydropower Projects are born idiots, or they are calculatedly acting stupid or they think that the Bhutanese people are complete dullards. Pray, tell me, which donkey will believe that a simple barrage is expected to perform the functions of a massive dam measuring 130 Meters high and 239 Meters long?

How much of their cock-and-bull story are we supposed to tolerate? Look at the following – and see how they have led us up the garden path for the past 14 years since the project started in November of 2008. The project was supposed to come on stream by December of 2016.

The sinking Dam site of Punatsangchu Hydropower Project I

PROJECT SIZE

Initially the project size was planed at 1,095 MW. Without doing a proper investigation, the project size was increased to 1,200 MW.

PROJECT COST ESTIMATE

The initial projection submitted to Bhutan was Nu.35.149 billion. My estimate is that the cost has now spiraled to over Nu.100.00 billion ---- and counting.

TYPE OF PROJECT

The project authorities of Punatsangchu I & II have been categorical that the projects are run-off-the-river schemes. And yet, for the Punatsangchu I project, they had planned to dam the Punatsangchu river with a dam cutting across the river – measuring a massive 130 Meters high and 239 Meters long. Are we to believe that the project authorities do not know the meaning of run-off-the-river scheme?

PROJECT COMPLETION DATE

The project was supposed to come on stream by December of 2016. The completion date has been shifted over three times already. This is the year 2022 and the project is not even half done. They are still doing DPR that should have been completed way before the start of the project.

HOW CAN A BARRAGE REPLACE A DAM

How is it possible that a simple barrage can replace a massive dam – both in function and purpose - a dam measuring 130 Meters high and 239 Meters long?

Additionally, don’t the project authorities know that a dam and a barrage have two distinctly different functions? From what I am given to understand – a dam is intended to store water and raise its level while a barrage is intended to divert water flow.

THE BARRAGE WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DROP IN GENERATION

Another complete and utter bullshit! If a barrage was good enough, why was a dam measuring 130 Meters high and 239 Meters long planned for the Punatsangchu Project I? To me it looks like a foregone conclusion that there will be very significant drop in generation – which will result in per unit cost of generation shooting through the roof. This cost will be passed on very generously to the Bhutanese people.

THE PROJECTS ARE SELF-LIQUIDATING

This is another of the claims that get my goat every time I am told this. We are not in the business of liquidating loans at 10% interest. If we are doing hydropower projects at great cost to our environment, we are doing so because we want to generate revenue to fund our developmental activities – not to pay off loans at 10% interest.

How is the project going to offset the Nu 28.00 billion already spent on the failed dam construction project of Punatsangchu I?

A BARRAGE WITHOUT STORAGE CAPABILITY

Even if the barrage’s DPR come off positive and the barrage gets built, it will not have water storage capability. Thus the economics of the project goes for a spin. For sure the overall generation will fall far, far short of the planned and installed capacity of 1,200 MW.

Kholongchu Hydropower Project: Coming or Going?

It is heartwarming to read in this morning’s Kuensel that the Kholongchu Hydropower Project is stalled and that the dam site is overrun by undergrowth. From where I stand, any reason - irrespective of what it is - will be a good reason for scrapping the project. In my reading, this project is the MOST DANGEROUS of all the hydro projects that has happened so far.

I have always said that I am NOT against hydropower projects – but that I am against the manner in which they have been done. But in the case of KHEL – I am dead against the project even if it is done correctly:

-  even if the entire project work is handled by Bhutanese contractors;

-  even if stone aggregates are mined and supplied by Bhutanese mine owners;

-  even if cement and rods are supplied by our own factories;

-  even if trucks and construction machineries are supplied by Bhutanese owners;

-  even if  vegetables are supplied by Doksumpas or Sharchokpas;

-  even if project dwellings are constructed by Bhutanese house owners.

Close to seven years back – on 19th February, 2015, I called for the closure of the Punasangchu Projects – since then it has been an annual event for me – calling for their closure. They are still standing – but I believe - just barely. The recent talk of doing a barrage in place of a dam at PHPE I is the early signs that the Project is going down. They know damn well that a barrage will not work.

Anyway, let them re-do their mathematics and take a harder look at the geological realities of the location. Thankfully, regardless of the Project authorities adamantly refusing to do the right thing, nature has been quietly showing its hand.

His Majesty's 114th National Day Speech: Interpretation I bbb

Of the many wise and meaningful reminders that His Majesty had pointed out during His 114th National Day speech, the subject of hydropower will be one that I am inclined to devote two articles. The reason: for the first time, there is official admission that hydropower is soon destined for the burial grounds. The following is the caution delivered by His Majesty in his 30th Sentence:

Sentence 30th: With rapid advancements in harnessing nuclear, hydrogen, fusion, solar, thermal and wind energy, hydropower may soon lose its competitive edge.

Water - source of future conflicts

There finally appears to be a sense that hydropower is now old hat. But the reality is that it can still generate revenue – long after our hydropower dreams have ground to a screeching halt. How? The following are my thoughts:

On 9th February, 2016, I had listed my 8 New Year Wishes. The 5th read as follows:

WISH V

The most shameful thing about a country that projects itself as a net exporter of hydroelectricity is the fact that we have to import power during the winter months at a price higher than that at which we export during the summer months. This is a most shameful and pathetic situation!

Therefore, my Vth wish is to build dams over the Wangchhu and the Punatsangchhu, so that we can harness the excess water available during the monsoons, caused by snow melt and rain water which otherwise go on to flood the plains of India. Such storage reservoirs will augment the drastic fall in water availability during winter months, thereby making it possible for our generators in the power plants to work at full capacity to generate electricity, even during the winter months. This will eliminate the need for import of expensive electricity during the lean season.

On the 27th of last month, I repeated my wish, as follows:

The planners and lawmakers should now stop talking of new hydropower projects. In fact they should stop talking about hydropower projects entirely.

Instead, let them talk about constructing a water storage reservoir on the Wangchhu – to augment water supply to the two existing projects downstream - during the winter months. Bring to focus the import bill of electricity during the winter months.

I have, to date, written 69 hydropower related articles. For those of you who are interested, the articles are grouped under the following:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/search/label/Hydroelectric%20Projects

There are facts and figures in those articles that may surprise you.

ADDENDUM:

I forgot to mention why a staunch environmentalist like myself is now urging the construction of reservoir dams across the Wangchhu and Punatsangchhu basins. The reason is that these two basins' environmental integrity has already been compromised - due to the hydropower projects that have already happened on the river basins - it cannot get any worst.

His Majesty's 114th National Day Speech: Interpretation I aaa

As I said in my last post of 18th December, 2021, I am going to offer to interpret His Majesty’s most riveting 114th National Day Speech, beginning with this first installment.

To me His Majesty’s body language on that day was clear – it was not one of surrender – it was one of absolute resolve. It was clear for all to see - that the days of words are behind Him – He will now act. His closing words were as follows:

“There is nothing new in what I am sharing today. These are part of daily conversation among our people while expressing their concerns, hopes and aspirations. Rather than leave these concerns and sentiments within the confines of their homes, I re-articulate them today as the King’s Command on this National Day”.

Before I begin my series, I would like to remind you of another of my interpretations – that of His Majesty’s 111th National Day Celebration in Samtse, during 2018. You can read it at the following:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2018/12/that-creed-of-humanoids-called-civil.html

I broke down His Majesty’s 114th National Day speech into numbers. The statistics, as they show up on my computer screen, are as follows:

1,906   Words

     30   Paragraphs

  216    Lines

  107    Sentences

Number of lines may vary, depending on your choice of font, page margins and font size choice – other numbers will not change.

Scanning through the 107 sentences that made up the total speech, significantly, the first in order of the many concerns His Majesty expressed dealt with - hydropower. He spoke as follows:

Sentence 29th: For example, hydropower today is an important source of our wealth.

Sentence 30th: With rapid advancements in harnessing nuclear, hydrogen, fusion, solar, thermal and wind energy, hydropower may soon lose its competitive edge.

Sentence 31st: We may soon become a net energy importer.

Sentence 32nd: Therefore, it is imperative to seize the opportunity and enhance the capabilities of our people, and strengthen the economic and governance framework to harness the potential ushered in by these rapid and dynamic technological changes.

What His Majesty is endeavoring to point out, in fact He is saying it clearly in His 31st sentence – that Hydropower will cease to be the technology of choice in the coming years. He is clear that emerging and advancing alternate sources of energy harnessed from nuclear, hydrogen, fusion, solar, thermal and wind – will render hydropower  - REDUNDANT.

Bhutan's Hydro Power Master Plan

In one of my 67 blog articles on the subject of hydropower, the following is what I had said, on 23rd of January, 2018:

“Let us be responsible to our future generations and make a pledge today to keep some of our rivers free flowing. In any event, solar power is fast emerging as a serious competition to hydro-power. In 1977 solar cells used to cost US$ 76.67 per watt. By July of 2016, per watt cost of solar cells had dropped to US$ 0.26. It will not be long before hydro-power is nudged out of the competition. Thus even from the point of view of investment, it looks like we are putting our debts behind a loser.

Let us stop further hydro-power projects. It is pretty clear that in the next 5-6 years, energy generated by hydro-power projects will no longer be competitive. Even worse, water may no longer qualify as a renewable resource, caused by global warming”.

Hydropower Projects: A shift in Thinking

Yet again there is discussion happening on our failed hydropower projects.

Discussions are good, provided they culminate in sound policies. But all indications are that no sound polices or thinking are emanating from these discussions. A case in point is the contemplated barrage for the Punatsangchhu I, in place of the failed Dam.

I have said many a time before: I am not against hydropower – but against the manner in which it is done in Bhutan. No sane Bhutanese can or should support any project that vandalizes the environment, result in human displacement, and with cost overruns that total close to 400% at 10% annual interest.

My view on the Barrage Project for Punatsangchu Project I:

It will be nothing more than a depository for trillions of tons of debris that will be deposited into it by the annual flooding of the Punatsangchu.

One of the issues that remained conspicuously silent and un-discussed with the P1 Dam project was the issue related to the silting and de-silting of the Dam, even if it got built. Did the Project Authorities have a foolproof plan as to how they were going to tackle the mammoth problem?

In my thinking any discussion on Kholongchu Project is futile – that project is not likely to happen given the compulsions surrounding it.

The law makers need to know something at this point in time so that they may make informed decisions. The inefficient design, planning and implementation of the projects have a direct bearing on the cost to the Bhutanese home energy consumers.

The government can absorb it – the project can absorb it – the industries that consume the energy can absorb it by passing on the additional cost to the consumers. The only persons who cannot absorb the high energy cost, resulting from the inefficiency of the project authorities will be the poor people.

It is therefore poor people like me who have to resort to whaling cries of woe – year after year.

The planners and lawmakers should now stop talking of new hydropower projects. In fact they should stop talking about hydropower projects entirely.

Instead, let them talk about constructing a water storage reservoir on the Wangchhu – to augment water supply to the two existing projects downstream - during the winter months. Bring to focus the import bill of electricity during the winter months.

The lawmakers should talk of cheaper funding sources – not sources that charge us 10% annual interest rates.

Remember, India got their funding from Japan for their Bullet Train Project. They were charged only:

0.01%

Let us wisen up!

Whether To Or Not To

Once again it is that time of the year when I have to go through moments of painful indecision – whether to or not to – start the room heater in my office. Talking of which I realize that I do not have a heater – the one I have is for the sitting room – just too big for my small home office.

Frustrated!

Indecisions notwithstanding, I do have to start the heater at some point. I mean this is already third week of November and my fingers are beginning to freeze and my trouser feels chilly against my thighs as I start work around 5.30AM. It does not help that my lodgings is located at the extreme north of Dechencholing.

The electricity bill is what I dread. Last winter months my bill was upwards of Nu.9,000.00 per month. I whaled about it and I suppose I will do the same this winter as well. Regardless, I know that my pleadings will fall on deaf ears and will be unfelt by the hearts of stone.

Despite so many rumblings, something that remains unanswered is this:

Why is a country that supposedly has electricity as its highest exportable surplus – is something the common Bhutanese people cannot afford - that they have to queue up at the fuel stations for hours to buy imported energy, trucked from across thousands of miles away?

If hydropower is so beneficial, why is the benefit not accruing to the people of Bhutan? What is the catch? Why is imported energy cheaper than homegrown one?

My readers who have commented on my following blog on the subject are providing some answers and reasons why our electricity is so expensive:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2019/08/being-penalized-for-not-using-domestic.html

The fallacy surrounding the claim that hydroelectric energy is the cheapest and most environmentally friendly is now under serious debate. The destruction caused to the environment both during and after the construction is so great that thinkers around the world are now hesitant to list hydroelectric as environmental friendly.

If it is cheapest, why are we not able to afford it?

If it is environmentally safer, why is so much destruction caused to our landscape and natural environment? Why is the fact that huge amounts of greenhouse gas Methane will be released into the atmosphere by these projects that cause 86 times more damage than CO2, is concealed?

On this Blog, I have 65 articles on hydropower related matters - second highest after photography at 102 articles. You can read them all at:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/search/label/Hydroelectric%20Projects

The problem is that it does not matter to the rich and the powerful – they can afford it. Quite obviously the poor people do not matter.

Shut Down Punatsangchhu-I

The massive flooding and destruction of two hydropower projects in India’s Uttarakhand state caused by breaking of the glacier upstream yesterday, should serve as a reminder to the governments of Bhutan and India to act without further delay – and order the shutting down of the perilous Punatsangchhu-I Project. To remain adamant despite more than a decade of proven failure – the two governments are being irresponsible and negligent to the citizens of Bhutan and India. When disaster strikes, it will be too late and no amount of saying sorry will mend and repair the lives and properties that will be devastated.

Uttarakhand Glacier Burst yesterday that destroyed 2 hydropower project dams.

Image Credit: www.livemint.com

The project’s cost overrun is in excess of three fold its initial projection. The project completion date has been shifted many times and yet the project is not even half done - it is unlikely to be ever done.

If the danger of GLOF were not real enough, the project sits bang in the middle of a seismically active zone.

Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan

One report on the Punatsangchhu-I project states as follows:

An incomplete understanding of the nature and extent of the real problem, during planning, design, excavation and construction phases has led to costly delays and the potential future amplification of an existing natural hazard.

The spatial coverage of the measurements also highlights that the instability is not only affecting the area immediately around a large failure which occurred in 2013, but it covers a much larger area of about 8 km2 in total.

To date, I have written 65 blogs on why our hydropower projects are done all wrong. Every year since 19th of February 2015 I have been calling for the shutting down of the PHEP-I. It is impossible to best nature - humanity has always come off worst – when we ignored nature’s warnings.

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2015/02/my-new-year-wish.html

I have offered every conceivable reason why we must be extremely cautious when contemplating doing hydropower projects:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2019/05/bhutans-bad-bet-how-hydropower-became.html

I have already stated years back that India is already more than self-sufficient in electricity – that it is a myth that they need our electricity to supplement their requirement. As I had pointed out quite accurately 2 years back, India has now declared that they are going the solar route – leaving us clutching our failed hydropower projects:

https://yesheydorji.blogspot.com/2019/03/chasing-hydropower-nightmare.html

Once again the Sankosh Project is rearing its head. I hope that this time the Bhutanese are better educated on the issue. I am glad that Khollongchhu Project is stalled – for the sake of the country’s future I hope that project is also scrapped for good.